DUBAI: After his landmark public demonstration of popular politics in Hyderabad, the new and energetic Pir of Pagara’s upcoming “Muslim Leagues Summit’ with Mian Nawaz Sharif in Raiwind, in about a week’s time, will lay the foundation of what many within and outside the PPP are describing as a game-changing political moment in Sindh. The first major casualty has, however, become the Governor of Punjab, Latif Khosa.
Nawaz Sharif, who has just been to Dubai on a private visit, confirmed this in meetings with some key people and also invited ex-CM Arbab Ghulam Rahim to return to Pakistan, especially to Punjab, which he says he will have any protection needed. Arbab has accepted the offer and will be travelling in January.But what has changed in Sindh, if any that will give a different result because in the past many times all these anti-PPP parties and groups, specially the nationalists, had joined hands but were squarely beaten by the popular PPP? This is the key question being asked now and the answers are many, some plausible, others not so.
The Bhutto factor, specially his daring sacrifice and bravery to go to the gallows, the charisma and personal struggle of Benazir Bhutto and overall the strong perception that the PPP would form the governments in Sindh and the Centre, were the key motivating factors for the oppressed Sindhis for years. All these factors are no more, or severely curtailed.
Asif Ali Zardari knows this and the first thing he did was to rename his children as Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Bakhtawar Bhutto Zardari and Aseefa Bhutto Zardari, besides always putting up the BB picture, even at the UN General Assembly podium But that was a gimmick so obvious.
On the ground, however, the Zardari clan took over all the Benazir assets and political matters, even going to the extent that the old Benazir housemaids and servants were ousted from their Larkana jobs in their ancestral homes. Nawabshah, instead of Larkana or Garhi Khuda Bakhsh was made the hub of all political activity and sister Faryal Talpur was made incharge of PPP, for all practical purposes, ignoring the Benazir loyalists and colleagues. But these personal decisions did not go well with Sindhis and hardcore Benazir and Bhutto Jialas.
On the political side PPP policy of joining hands with natural rivals of Sindhis, mainly the MQM, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, the supporters of Musharraf and many more seriously dented the party image. The so-called “surrender” by the PPP on the local government issue has acted as a catalyst.
Yet the key factor — the perception that the PPP will be a winner — is now a big question mark. Life of Sindhis, as any other Pakistani, has been hit by the multiple shortages, crisis, corruption, land grabs and rule of the mafias. Power, gas, CNG, jobs are all in short supply but Sindhis in general have been left out, except for some PPP and Zardari supporters.
Zardari realises this and according to highly credible sources has sent special emissaries to Arbab Ghulam Rahim and even his rival political groups in Nawabshah seeking a rapprochement. He has offered Arbab Rahim a safe return and restoration of his politics to a great degree.
These offers were instantly rejected as Sindhi leaders do no think the PPP will again be getting back in that position of power, which it has enjoyed as result of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination which catapulted Mr Zardari on the hot seat. The perception of the PPP coming back to power is fading.
So that is why the Pagara public rally was an eye-opener for many and the array of anti-PPP leaders, both from Sindh and Punjab, sent a deeply disturbing message for the PPP leadership now in control of colleagues and friends of President Asif Ali Zardari, rather than loyalists or experienced leaders of late Benazir Bhutto era.
“The PPP is shocked and unable to come up with a quick response,” insiders say, while Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah has tried to put up a brave face by saying Mr Zardari will respond on the death anniversary of BB on Dec 27, the day when Bilawal Bhutto will be launched.
The young son is probably the last card in Mr Zardari’s arsenal though many say he is already acting as a top government functionary, sitting in even classified and security cleared meetings, both within the country and with foreign leaders.
The initial reports of his performance are mixed, as he is just learning the ropes but it demonstrates the sad plight of the PPP, a 45-year old federal party, which has seen giants like ZA Bhutto, Benazir and many others, but which is now banking on the innocence and emotional appeal of a novice.
President Zardari, however, has a bagful of political chess moves and he enjoys playing the cards with relish. His immediate reaction to the Pir Pagara initiative has been the double edged decision to sack Sardar Latif Khosa as Punjab governor and appoint a close relative of Pir Pagara in his place, the Punjab chief of the PML-F. On the face of it the move looks like a master stroke, to divide and weaken Pir Pagara and to bring some change in Punjab where the PPP is in the doldrums. Some of the national and provincial seats in Rahim Yar Khan are always won by Makhdoom Ahmed’s close family members. Shahbaz and Pervaiz Elahi had also won from these seats thanks to the clout and hospitality of Makhdoom Ahmed in the area.
The time will tell whether this move is backfired for Makhdoom Ahmed or Pir Pagara. Makhdoom Ahmed, the new Governor-designate, met Pir Pagara and informed him of the decision but it did not go well with the Pir. Their kinship apart, the elder Pir asked him not to fall prey to Zardari’s tricks. He could not understand what Makhdoom will get in taking up a job for what some say a maximum of 90 days or so, since demands are already on the table that all governors should be removed and neutral persons appointed in their place. If that happens, as it may, Governor Makhdoom has already lost his position as Punjab PML-F chief and may lose the new post at Lahore’s Governor’s House as well. But others say Makhdoom Ahmed can remain in office beyond the period of 90 days as the president appoints the governor.
This sad plight of the PPP is the result, insiders say, of a highly personalised, instead of political, approach adopted by Mr Zardari to run the party with a remote control from the Presidency, a role which is now being challenged in political and judicial circles with increasing gusto.
To capitalise on this sentiment, the anti-PPP crowd is coming together and the death of the old Pir Pagara and induction of his visibly hawkish successor has infused a “now or never” feeling, pushing all those who dislike Mr Zardari to rally in groups and coalitions which may ultimately combine to challenge the PPP in Sindh, its bastion of power and survival.
The Pagara-Nawaz meeting which was preceded by a meeting in Dubai on Tuesday between Mian Nawaz Sharif and self-exiled ex-chief minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim in Dubai, who still controls his constituencies in Thar, will set the tone for a yet informal but soon to be formalised grand alliance of Muslim Leagues, the nationalists in Sindh, the PPP dissidents and parties led by Pir Pagara.
This is coming into being, say PPP leaders both supporting and angry with Mr Zardari.Nabil Gabol, a PPP leader from Karachi who is not so happy with the situation, thinks the meeting of Pir Pagara was “a big threat to the PPP, was very impressive and was a green signal to the anti-PPP forces headed by Pir Sb.”
Senator Safdar Abbasi and BB’s close aide Naheed Khan, the dissidents, say the meeting has taken the PPP by surprise. They contend Mr Zardari’s form and style has hurt the party almost equally as compared to his blatant surrender to the MQM on the local government issue.
This typical style has many visible and invisible forms. Previously unknown family members like Owais Muzaffar and Faryal Talpur have been inducted as drawing room decision makers and when old and veteran PPP leaders and jialas have to seek approval and guidance, or at times apologise to Mr Muzaffar, tipped as the next chief minister of Sindh, anger and frustration builds up, compounding with time, ready to burst at the first available opportunity. Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah, nevertheless, insists that he is in total control and makes all the decisions.
Many PPP workers see this chance has come their way with the upcoming elections and may trigger the fortunes of the PPP to fade.While the PPP’s list of negatives is spread all over the country, the dealings of Mr Zardari with the MQM on the local government issue have tipped the scale overwhelmingly.
All PPP leaders are enraged, some can express their anger, others are not so courageous but the rivals have been given a big stick. The nationalists have been motivated and galvanised, Pir Pagara has taken the leadership role, other allies like the ANP are furious.
Some analysts, including senior journalist Suhail Warraich, believe Zardari has played a master card by giving the local governments in three Sindh cities to the MQM but how much this will cost him in rural Sindh cannot yet be quantified in parliamentary numbers but the sentiment is highly negative. Warraich thinks even if the PPP loses some seats in rural Sindh the MQM will make up the losses and thus Zardari may retain control of the Sindh government.
For others this a high risk gamble. No one can predict what the MQM may do as they have also been serious victims of Mr Zardari’s policies of playing snakes and ladders, or carrot and stick with Altaf Bhai and his party. For years they have been kept out of the city administrations in Karachi and Hyderabad, the two bastions of their power and showpieces of their performance. Thus the MQM has literally been pushed in a corner where they cannot even protest loudly.
With the new developments in London in Dr Imran Farooq case and the expected and belated hacking by the Supreme Court, the MQM is virtually begging the PPP for help. The MQM would be watching closely whether the PPP supports them on the Altaf Hussain contempt notice issue. Still no forceful voice of support has been raised on both these issues by the PPP leadership but if it is done, rural Sindh will react negatively.
On the contrary, Mr Zardari did not even see or talk to Altaf Bhai when he went to see Malala Yusufzai, a message which must have been received with shock and awe at the London Secretariat on Edgware Road where Scotland Yard was searching for murder clues.
In yet another act of cutting the MQM to size, the main interlocutor, Rehman Malik, has been almost sidelined by Mr Zardari and according to Mr Suhail Warraich, Malik’s main problem at this point is his own survival rather than intruding into foreign affairs with India or handling Altaf Bhai.
However, circles close to Mr Rehman Malik say he just had a very successful trip to India and if Zardari had not approved it, how he could have undertaken such a high profile visit.
In this very sensitive state of relations between the MQM and the PPP, when some MQM insiders even planted reports on credible TV anchors that their Governor was about to resign or being sacked, it cannot be stated with confidence how the PPP-MQM relations will go when the real chips are down, elections are called and non-party neutral caretaker governments are set up.
That the induction of neutral caretakers will be a critical moment which could change power equations is not challenged by any leader or analyst.
Former Chief Minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim thinks the moment Zardari loses his grip on the Sindh administration, sparks within the PPP will hit the skies. Safdar Abbasi and Naheed Khan say many PPP candidates who will not get the PPP ticket this time, and there will be plenty of them, will not abide by party discipline and will contest the elections regardless of who gets the PPP ticket. This could scatter PPP votes to a disastrous end.
The Sindh Card, as they say, is up for grabs. Mr Zardari has used it several times during the last 5 years successfully to get his way through at critical junctures when he was challenged, either by the judiciary or the political opponents or even the media. But now Pir Pagara says this card has been taken away from Mr Zardari as he has succumbed to the MQM. Pagara’s words, spoken in Sindhi to a crowd of lakhs of his followers, will resonate far and wide.
The confusion and uncertainty in ranks of Sindhi political class is becoming evident by the day. As Nawaz Sharif has launched an offensive to grab as many tribes and communities, traditionally the Sindhi wadera and landlord has tilted towards the winning party, the PPP, for decades.
But now no one is sure, thanks to Mr Zardari. Heavyweights are being contacted by all parties and they are undecided. A list published by the media shows the some Mehers, Mazaris, Panhwars, Sheikhs, Unnars, Malkanis, Palejos and many others are sitting on the fence but not ready to commit to the PPP as yet. The Arbabs of Thar have now been added to this list. Zardari loyalists, however, say the Mehers, Mazaris, Unnars, Malkanis and Palejos are still with the PPP.
But analysts say when the battle horns are sounded with caretaker governments, more will be reluctant to side with a losing side, that may be the PPP.
A senior leader of PML-N Imdad Chandio told a newspaper that all the political bigwigs of Sindh, who are currently political opponents of the ruling PPP, were in contact to join the PML-N, but they were waiting for a suitable time. That time is coming soon, analysts say.
In Chandio’s opinion majority of the former political heavy weights and feudal lords were waiting for the removal of the PPP government, so they can switch over to the PML-N as most of them believed that after the tenure of present government, the future of the PPP is bleak in the province.
All this is the opinion of the anti-PPP and neutral or objective analysts but the PPP hardliners do not agree.
Even a borderline and somewhat angry Raza Rabbani says anti-PPP forces are rallying around minor issues which will be resolved as the PPP has a hard line on main issues like Kalabagh Dam and provincial autonomy.
Rabbani says the politics of Sindhi nationalists was based on demand of provincial autonomy which has been solved forever through the 18th Amendment. “Now, in fact, nationalist have no issue to do politics and hence are trying to use minor issues to continue their politics.”
Rabbani adds: “PPP’s stance on the Kalabagh Dam issue is bright and clear from very first day and it is based on logic and reason and also endorsed by all other major political forces of the country.”
Rabbani is not worried about new alliances of nationalist forces as he says they neither have any strong public support in Sindh nor they have any issue to do politics.
But about Pir Pagara he is cautious. “It is yet not clear whether Pir Sahib will make an alliance with Nawaz Sharif. Pir Sahib has been the part of the PPP government and now because of differences on some small issues, like local bodies ordinance, he is annoyed and these issues could be sorted out.”
How, he does not explain and why things have drifted apart so much is yet a question that needs an answer.
But activist and loud-spoken Sharjeel Memon who represents the present PPP set-up in the province speaks with much more confidence. He gave a long list of positive PPP points when asked about the gains made by Sindhi nationalists.
The 17 point list he says proves that the notion of a PPP failure is a media-myth.
“The facts are otherwise,” and he counts the achievements which begin by the fact that 125,000 jobs were given by the government, development budget was tripled, 60,000 acres of land was given to landless peasants, 20,000 houses were handed over to homeless people, lakhs of flood-affected people were given Rs10,000 per family, fishermen were freed to go fishing anywhere, Thar coal project has been launched, roads have been built, Sindh has been made self-sufficient in wheat production and so on.
So Memon believes the PPP will give much better results as compared to the previous elections. “PPP will perform exceptionally well,” he claims with confidence.
He does not worry that many of these achievements that he counted are issues which are being investigated by the courts and NAB and the media, and could cause serious trouble as billions upon billions of public funds are involved and have been wasted. In just one case the Supreme Court has sought details of lands awarded in Sindh, a matter of billions and who gets caught in this is going to embarrass the PPP high command a lot.
Asked what will be the future of Fatima and Zulfikar Bhutto, daughter and son of Murtuza Bhutto, the real Bhutto heirs as compared to Bilawal Zardari, Sharjeel Memon says: “People of Sindh are devotees of Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and her daughter Shaheed Benazir Bhutto. They loved ZAB and BB and now will only support Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.”
But in Sindh, tribes do count and a mixing of tribes is often not taken so lightly. A Zardari mixing with Bhutto may be sold in public meetings but in private hujras no one likes the idea. Will this show up in some way in the heated politics of Sindh, after Bilawal is formally launched, is a big question mark. Ahmad Noorani contributed from Islamabad for this report.
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